Les conséquences sur la vie des Havrais(es) de la crise financière actuelle

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Par Marc Migraine le dimanche 19 octobre 2008, 22:49 - Port et économie - Lien permanent

La crise financière actuelle a 3 conséquences :

Krack Boursier,
Fragilité Bancaire,
Ralentissement Economique.

Quelles sont les incidences de ces 3 crises sur la vie des Havrais et des Havraises ?

- Le krack boursier. Incidence faible.
Seuls les havrais qui ont un portefeuille boursier sont touchés par la déconfiture boursière.
La grande majorité des havrais comme des français fait peu de placements en bourse (par rapport aux citoyens des autres pays industrialisés) et n'est pas directement affectée par le krack boursier.
La quasi absence de fond de pension en France évite de véritables catastrophes pour les pensions de nos retraités (contrairement aux pays anglo-saxons).

- La Fragilité des banques. Incidence moyenne.
Les banques françaises ont pris moins de risque que leurs homologues américaines, anglaises, espagnoles, islandaises, irlandaises ou belges. Leurs pertes sont moindres.
Néanmoins elles seront affectées par le climat bancaire actuel et les entreprises havraises auront plus de difficultés à trouver des prêts (ou à des taux supérieurs) pour développer leur entreprise.

- Le ralentissement économique. Incidence trés forte.
Les havrais, comme tous les français seront touchés de plein fouet par la crise économique et ses conséquences :

Augmentation du chômage, de la précarité, des déficits publics, baisse du pouvoir d'achat, tassement (voire baisse) du Trafic Maritime.

Le krack boursier est annonciateur du ralentissement économique de 2009 et de 2010 qui seront des années trés difficiles au Havre, comme partout en France. Les Havrais(es) doivent se préparer à 2 années difficiles.

Une inconnue demeure : Quelle sera l'ampleur du tassement du trafic maritime secondairement au ralentissement économique ?
Selon la réponse à cette question le Havre souffrira plus ou moins de la crise.

Mais une chose est sûre : Pendant les années difficiles que nous traverserons, La municipalité du Havre ne laissera personne sur le bord du chemin.

Marc Migraine

Commentaires

1. Le lundi 20 octobre 2008, 02:02 par Jeff: Je suis heureux de voir enfin le thème économique au cœur des sujets Politiques.

- Je pense que la ville et des offices HLM vont devoir acheter quelques programmes immobiliers qui n'arriveront pas au bout.
- Certains projets vont être reportés dans le temps.
- Les poids lourds de la distribution local vont devoir se serrer la ceinture au profit des petits.
- Les loisirs locaux et la plage vont faire le plein, même en août.

Tout cela sous une atmosphère d'inflation entraînant une dévalorisation de la monnaie

Bonne continuation.
2. Le lundi 20 octobre 2008, 02:02 par Jeff: Je suis heureux de voir enfin le thème économique au cœur des sujets Politiques.

- Je pense que la ville et des offices HLM vont devoir acheter quelques programmes immobiliers qui n'arriveront pas au bout.
- Certains projets vont être reportés dans le temps.
- Les poids lourds de la distribution local vont devoir se serrer la ceinture au profit des petits.
- Les loisirs locaux et la plage vont faire le plein, même en août.

Tout cela sous une atmosphère d'inflation entraînant une dévalorisation de la monnaie

Bonne continuation.
3. Le lundi 20 octobre 2008, 22:20 par bernard: Les banques qui ont prété de l'argent à un taux tellement bas que cela a incité les citoyens à de forts endettements qui représentent aujourd'hui leur ruine. Jean-claude Trichet avait raison de ne pas baisser les taux d'intérêt de la banque centrale européenne comme l'incitait à le faire tant de commentateurs.
4. Le lundi 20 octobre 2008, 22:20 par bernard: Les banques qui ont prété de l'argent à un taux tellement bas que cela a incité les citoyens à de forts endettements qui représentent aujourd'hui leur ruine. Jean-claude Trichet avait raison de ne pas baisser les taux d'intérêt de la banque centrale européenne comme l'incitait à le faire tant de commentateurs.
5. Le samedi 25 octobre 2008, 20:08 par Antoine D: Bernard a raison. De plus, il n'y aurait pas pu y avoir de crise des suprimes en France, car il n'aurait pu y avoir de subprimes. Nous n'avons pas la même culture de l'endettement que les américains

Merci pour votre analyse, M. Migraine. Je reprends vos 3 points.
1/ chute de la bourse. De nombreux Havrais ont des contrats d'assurance vie; Et selon ce qu'ils ont mis dedans, il peut y avoir des dégâts.
2/ Fragilité des banques : nos banques continuent et continueront de prêter. Même aux entreprises. Elles seront sans doute encore un peu plus sélectives.
3/ Ralentissement économique. Je me demande comment vous pouvez affirmer que nous aurons 2 années difficiles, et non 1 ou 3.
Je me demande aussi si la crise de l'industrie financière et la crise économique ne seraient pas moins connectées qu'on ne le dit. La récession économique aurait lieu même sans crise financière. Seulement, la crise financière précipite la crise économique, puisque le secteur financier est le comburant de l'économie.
- le nombre de chômeurs va probablement repartir à la hausse, mais non en raison d'une baisse de la consommation (qui sera une conséquence), mais en raison d'une politique économique tournée en France depuis bientôt 30 ans vers la demande, et non vers l'offre. On investit peu. On perd de la compétitivité ; on perd des emplois. La balance extérieure de la zone Euro est nettement moins mauvaise que celle de la France. Depuis longtemps.
- A mon avis, le trafic maritime ne va pas forcément baisser. En revanche, la part des conteneurs vides au départ du Havre va encore s'accroître.
Il y a encore bcp de choses à dire sur le sujet. Mais il est vrai que la situation de nombreux Havrais va se déteriorer. mais pas à cause de cette crise financière.
6. Le samedi 25 octobre 2008, 20:08 par Antoine D: Bernard a raison. De plus, il n'y aurait pas pu y avoir de crise des suprimes en France, car il n'aurait pu y avoir de subprimes. Nous n'avons pas la même culture de l'endettement que les américains

Merci pour votre analyse, M. Migraine. Je reprends vos 3 points.
1/ chute de la bourse. De nombreux Havrais ont des contrats d'assurance vie; Et selon ce qu'ils ont mis dedans, il peut y avoir des dégâts.
2/ Fragilité des banques : nos banques continuent et continueront de prêter. Même aux entreprises. Elles seront sans doute encore un peu plus sélectives.
3/ Ralentissement économique. Je me demande comment vous pouvez affirmer que nous aurons 2 années difficiles, et non 1 ou 3.
Je me demande aussi si la crise de l'industrie financière et la crise économique ne seraient pas moins connectées qu'on ne le dit. La récession économique aurait lieu même sans crise financière. Seulement, la crise financière précipite la crise économique, puisque le secteur financier est le comburant de l'économie.
- le nombre de chômeurs va probablement repartir à la hausse, mais non en raison d'une baisse de la consommation (qui sera une conséquence), mais en raison d'une politique économique tournée en France depuis bientôt 30 ans vers la demande, et non vers l'offre. On investit peu. On perd de la compétitivité ; on perd des emplois. La balance extérieure de la zone Euro est nettement moins mauvaise que celle de la France. Depuis longtemps.
- A mon avis, le trafic maritime ne va pas forcément baisser. En revanche, la part des conteneurs vides au départ du Havre va encore s'accroître.
Il y a encore bcp de choses à dire sur le sujet. Mais il est vrai que la situation de nombreux Havrais va se déteriorer. mais pas à cause de cette crise financière.
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